I so hope you are right. A few points I would make.
1. In Mid-Beds the argument about resources also applies to the Lib Dems who also won't have the time to make as much mischief. The Labour candidate is now incumbent and it is clear where the anti-Tory vote is best placed. He also has a few months to make himself useful in the constituency. I'm not saying it's a shoe-in but he probably has a fighting chance now. Same applies to Tamworth to a lesser extent.
2. There is certainly truth in the fact that Labour won both seats because Tories stayed at home. But for a by-election more or less getting equaling your GE vote is encouraging from a mobilisation perspective.
I don't buy point 2 here. It's the old flannel Handsy came out with.
Aside: after Pincher and Bone(r) I can't help thinking that nominative determinism says he's a walking future by-election.
But is it really plausible that the Labour vote came out and only Tories stayed home. I could see Labour being more motivated but equally if there really are all these solid Tories lurking in these areas surely they'd come out to fight off the commies, especially after Greg showed them that note and handed out some satirical footwear?
More likely is that this is like the myth that ULEZ 'won' Uxbridge when in reality Labour overturned most of a massive natural Tory majority.
We should let them fool themselves, it increases the odds of them going away, but we shouldn't fall for their nonsense.
Actually there is no need for any kind of Lib-Lab deal or 'understanding' at the GE. Daisy 'Pulls it off' Cooper was quite explicit in her post by-election TV appearances that the LibDems will concentrate on the top 50 seats where they came second last time (and actually the top 25 is probably the real target). If you look at this list https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat you can see that only four of these are Labour held and, indeed only Sheffield Hallam (my own constituency) is a realistic target though Cambridge just might be. The unspoken subtext to her comments was that the LibDems will not compete all that much in seats where they were third last time out. That's an open invitation to an anti-Tory squeeze.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think that at the past two elections the electorate has very much been offered the choice of The Left and hasn’t sprung for it. In 2019, the rejection was pretty comprehensive. Ditto in 1983. But I guess some folk find it better to have glorious principles they can never, ever put into effect because they can’t actually persuade enough people to come with them than to tack with the political wind and actually make progress. (Mixed metaphors. Maybe the sailing one would work better if thought through.)
There were rats in the Labour Party who actively worked against a Labour victory. Added to the downright lies about Corbyn in the media and what do you expect? It’s not the public that don’t want decent policies, it’s the vested interests who are so fucking greedy they prefer to see people starve than share their enormous wealth just a little. A choice of two very similar things ain’t really a choice.
Well, gee; if the left was that undesirable, maybe the right and center-right wouldn't have to spend tankers of ink, millions of pounds/dollars/euros/riyals/whatever, and thousands of hours of video and electoral lawfare to marginalize any electoral choices that resemble it. Heaven forfend that the Left have any agency of its own, after all; it could drag us away from this spotless system of financialized predatory capitalism that benefits the "right people" so much.
Absolutely true, but in terms of GE all that matters is the swing target than whether Lab actually holds these particular seats. And on this kind of swing they'll clean up. Suspect some Tories will use that Reform vote to push for Sunak to move right though.
I so hope you are right. A few points I would make.
1. In Mid-Beds the argument about resources also applies to the Lib Dems who also won't have the time to make as much mischief. The Labour candidate is now incumbent and it is clear where the anti-Tory vote is best placed. He also has a few months to make himself useful in the constituency. I'm not saying it's a shoe-in but he probably has a fighting chance now. Same applies to Tamworth to a lesser extent.
2. There is certainly truth in the fact that Labour won both seats because Tories stayed at home. But for a by-election more or less getting equaling your GE vote is encouraging from a mobilisation perspective.
I don't buy point 2 here. It's the old flannel Handsy came out with.
Aside: after Pincher and Bone(r) I can't help thinking that nominative determinism says he's a walking future by-election.
But is it really plausible that the Labour vote came out and only Tories stayed home. I could see Labour being more motivated but equally if there really are all these solid Tories lurking in these areas surely they'd come out to fight off the commies, especially after Greg showed them that note and handed out some satirical footwear?
More likely is that this is like the myth that ULEZ 'won' Uxbridge when in reality Labour overturned most of a massive natural Tory majority.
We should let them fool themselves, it increases the odds of them going away, but we shouldn't fall for their nonsense.
As ever, a great read. And yes, let's hope this is really the end.
Great piece, great times.
Bastards Battered in By-election Bruising. Bloody Brilliant!
God, I hope you're right
But years and years of disappointment still make me worried.
Hurrah!
What a Friday!!
Best headline to read on a grey day! Thanks a mil.
Splendid. Splenetic. Thank you!
I wish I could click "like" ten times.
Great piece as always, and oh my I can’t wait for GE
Yeah just.... One year of stagnation and wrecking the country through ineptitude.
If only we had an actual Labour Party rather than a watered down version of the Tories. Most of us will still be stuffed no matter which party wins 😢
Actually there is no need for any kind of Lib-Lab deal or 'understanding' at the GE. Daisy 'Pulls it off' Cooper was quite explicit in her post by-election TV appearances that the LibDems will concentrate on the top 50 seats where they came second last time (and actually the top 25 is probably the real target). If you look at this list https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat you can see that only four of these are Labour held and, indeed only Sheffield Hallam (my own constituency) is a realistic target though Cambridge just might be. The unspoken subtext to her comments was that the LibDems will not compete all that much in seats where they were third last time out. That's an open invitation to an anti-Tory squeeze.
Starmer turning Labour into "Tory Lite" makes it an even more Hobson's Choice for the Left; like voting for leukemia to stave off cholera.
How long before that "tactical" vote no longer brings enough "tactic"?
Correct me if I’m wrong but I think that at the past two elections the electorate has very much been offered the choice of The Left and hasn’t sprung for it. In 2019, the rejection was pretty comprehensive. Ditto in 1983. But I guess some folk find it better to have glorious principles they can never, ever put into effect because they can’t actually persuade enough people to come with them than to tack with the political wind and actually make progress. (Mixed metaphors. Maybe the sailing one would work better if thought through.)
There were rats in the Labour Party who actively worked against a Labour victory. Added to the downright lies about Corbyn in the media and what do you expect? It’s not the public that don’t want decent policies, it’s the vested interests who are so fucking greedy they prefer to see people starve than share their enormous wealth just a little. A choice of two very similar things ain’t really a choice.
Well, gee; if the left was that undesirable, maybe the right and center-right wouldn't have to spend tankers of ink, millions of pounds/dollars/euros/riyals/whatever, and thousands of hours of video and electoral lawfare to marginalize any electoral choices that resemble it. Heaven forfend that the Left have any agency of its own, after all; it could drag us away from this spotless system of financialized predatory capitalism that benefits the "right people" so much.
Votes for the Reform Party make an interesting stat: more than winning margin in both, I think.
Absolutely true, but in terms of GE all that matters is the swing target than whether Lab actually holds these particular seats. And on this kind of swing they'll clean up. Suspect some Tories will use that Reform vote to push for Sunak to move right though.