Was really interested in your analysis of why the media have (apart form the usual rags) had such a go at Labour over the last two weeks. Is it really just that they are bored and want a closer election campaign? I think there is a little more to it than that.
1. I think they feel the need to find balance. Giving the Tories a (deserved) kicking every day means they need to find some outlet to give Labour a kicking when they can.
2. And following that, they are guilty of hyperbole. You admit, as I do, that Labour have made mistakes in their comms, drip feeding £28BN investment and Rochdale action should have been earlier. But it is OTT.
I was really taken aback by the visceral nature of the questioning by Sophie Ridge this week of James Murray. She is normally one of the best. But I was appalled with her this week. Wasn’t so much questioning as an emotional attack. Only she can explain why.
Agreed on point one. It was the first sign of weakness for a while and they pounced. Tbf, it was executed in a piss poor way that suggested a chaotic situation behind the scenes. But there was a noticeable delight to how they did it
I will vote for any party in order to get the Tories out. That said I would still like to see something more than that in terms of ideas and policies from Labour. Narrowing the wealth inequality in the country would be something, I think, most people would get behind. It would start the process of having something solid on which to build the economy. Let's see the passive income of the super rich taxed properly. That should give Rachel Reeves a few quid to spend on fixing the problems caused by 14 years of narcissistic, self serving, greedy wankers running this country into the ground.
It’ll be interesting to see how many people follow your line of thinking in terms of voting for the best option to oust a Tory. Electoral Calculus looked into this a while back and its figures were way higher than what I thought they’d be: 37% Labour; 48% Lib Dem; 60% Green. When you start plugging those into current polling, very interesting things happen. Right now, a single point switch from Con to Ref or LD can shift the predicted seat count from “merely terrible” for the Tories to “total disaster”.
Presumably a little note from a newspaper editor, with the line: “Ian. We’ve discussed this. You can’t use that language in a national newspaper. If you want to write that sort of thing, you need your own outlet.”
Ian: “Shit. You’re fucking right. I’ll get my own bastard Substack then, and fucking write whatever I shitting want, and tell everyone the Tories are triple cunt-fucked.”
Does 1 even count as a thought? Can I have a ninth of my subscription back!
Thanks for another high quality even-minded analysis Ian. surely the only column using ‘triple cunt fucked’ to describe the Tory position, and all the better for it.
Always enjoy reading and listening to your analysis Ian, miss you hugely on the pods. Your profanity usually makes me laugh out loud. But. I’d like to but can’t share this post with my politically aware teenage daughter. I think you’ve gone over a line this time. I’m pretty sure you’re not a misogynist, but the combination of words you’ve used risks being taken for one.
Oddly AR, you are the only responder who sees it that way. Other than your snarky response, I’ve received an interesting article from Emma and a few likes. Can’t see how that equates to embarrassment.
Apologies for the late response Emma - I found the article you shared informative and interesting. I’m not the prude that I suspect the other (anonymous) responder to my comment believes me to be. I swear fairly freely but tend to avoid the word in question. My aversion to it is related to its predominant use as a violent insult when I was growing up - probably the strongest insult used. Ian’s combination of words is an extension of that - I’m sure he wouldn’t wish any of the Tories anything pleasurable! Hence my interpretation of the combination as misogynistic.
But… but… but… Jacob Rees-Mogg is saying it’s all great and could have been a lot worse, and so everything is great actually. And Redwood has a plan, in that the party just has to be more conservative. And chunks of the media seemingly think Ref won two by-elections. And that the Libs are doomed, and so the blue wall is safe (phew).
So obviously Labour has no chance and the Tories are going to win big. Or something.
I think we must be alert to the possibility that there may not actually be an election. They have had their noses in the trough for so long, they are not just going to give that up quietly. There's a real risk that they will manufacture some major crisis or perhaps even a war, as an excuse to delay the election by, initially, a couple of years and then ...
You say: If there is hope for the Conservatives, it lies with the 'don't knows'.
The only way I can see things changing is to have new Independent candidates coming forward.
The "don't knows" and the "fed up with one party but don't fancy any of the rest" would be their target.
The more I think about it, an influx of Independent (and hopefully also competent and determined to do things better) MPs could totally change what actually gets done.
Ian - is this wishful thinking? Or could it happen (logistically, I'm pretty sure it could....if the desire was there... and there does increasingly seem to be a desire for radical change).
I suspect that, given how so many voters treat politics like supporting football teams rather than looking at how individuals might benefit them, and the lack of local media of note, that probably is wishful thinking. Claire Wright’s slow progress shows how tough this is. I imagine if she stands again this year, she’d probably win East Devon at the fourth attempt, but that’s a long haul and she has a lot of local recognition and backing. Dave o’ Random rocking up won’t have the same clout and in most seats would likely just further split the vote. (How might be quite random, given that independents are just as likely to be fiscal and/or social conservatives as progressives.)
I think you are right - it has to be someone already well known in the area - I'm thinking maybe of Independent councilors who have already got themselves elected and know how to do it.
And campaigns have to be local so high name recognition is the key.
So when people go the ballot box they see a name they know on the ballot sheet....
Apparently a lot of people really do only make the decision at that moment....
And if we could get someone really high profile eg Carol Vorderman to say "Look at voting for your local Independent candidate" that would help.
Plus lots of highly visible posters/leaflets everywhere....so that means lots of supporting hands.
But I think the right candidates would know how to enthuse and activate like-minded people into action.
Turns out that screaming “Labour has no plan” and “Labour’s plan will put us back to square one” is as ineffective as it is cognitively dissonant.
Utterly, utterly fucked and deservedly so
Thank you! The first paragraph was worth a year’s subscription in itself!
I read it to my husband. We couldn't get past “utterly cunted” due to hysterical laughter. I am adopting this phrase forthwith.
"The Conservative party is holistically fucked" that's all, marvellous.
Triple cunted is strong but it makes me think of triple cooked chips haha
Spoke to a fair few ‘don’t knows’ on the very damp doorsteps of Kingswood last night. No enthusiasm for the Tories, that’s very clear.
Triple cunt fuck. Now that’s not one I’ve heard before that I really like but definitely one to use sparingly.
Was really interested in your analysis of why the media have (apart form the usual rags) had such a go at Labour over the last two weeks. Is it really just that they are bored and want a closer election campaign? I think there is a little more to it than that.
1. I think they feel the need to find balance. Giving the Tories a (deserved) kicking every day means they need to find some outlet to give Labour a kicking when they can.
2. And following that, they are guilty of hyperbole. You admit, as I do, that Labour have made mistakes in their comms, drip feeding £28BN investment and Rochdale action should have been earlier. But it is OTT.
I was really taken aback by the visceral nature of the questioning by Sophie Ridge this week of James Murray. She is normally one of the best. But I was appalled with her this week. Wasn’t so much questioning as an emotional attack. Only she can explain why.
Agreed on point one. It was the first sign of weakness for a while and they pounced. Tbf, it was executed in a piss poor way that suggested a chaotic situation behind the scenes. But there was a noticeable delight to how they did it
I will vote for any party in order to get the Tories out. That said I would still like to see something more than that in terms of ideas and policies from Labour. Narrowing the wealth inequality in the country would be something, I think, most people would get behind. It would start the process of having something solid on which to build the economy. Let's see the passive income of the super rich taxed properly. That should give Rachel Reeves a few quid to spend on fixing the problems caused by 14 years of narcissistic, self serving, greedy wankers running this country into the ground.
It’ll be interesting to see how many people follow your line of thinking in terms of voting for the best option to oust a Tory. Electoral Calculus looked into this a while back and its figures were way higher than what I thought they’d be: 37% Labour; 48% Lib Dem; 60% Green. When you start plugging those into current polling, very interesting things happen. Right now, a single point switch from Con to Ref or LD can shift the predicted seat count from “merely terrible” for the Tories to “total disaster”.
'Triple cunt-fucked'. Where did that come from? 😂
Presumably a little note from a newspaper editor, with the line: “Ian. We’ve discussed this. You can’t use that language in a national newspaper. If you want to write that sort of thing, you need your own outlet.”
Ian: “Shit. You’re fucking right. I’ll get my own bastard Substack then, and fucking write whatever I shitting want, and tell everyone the Tories are triple cunt-fucked.”
Does 1 even count as a thought? Can I have a ninth of my subscription back!
Thanks for another high quality even-minded analysis Ian. surely the only column using ‘triple cunt fucked’ to describe the Tory position, and all the better for it.
Heh. Fully Anglo-Saxon on their arses. No less than those cunts deserve.
Always enjoy reading and listening to your analysis Ian, miss you hugely on the pods. Your profanity usually makes me laugh out loud. But. I’d like to but can’t share this post with my politically aware teenage daughter. I think you’ve gone over a line this time. I’m pretty sure you’re not a misogynist, but the combination of words you’ve used risks being taken for one.
I agree that you shouldn’t share this with your daughter. Primarily so she doesn’t see how much her father has embarrassed himself in the comments
Oddly AR, you are the only responder who sees it that way. Other than your snarky response, I’ve received an interesting article from Emma and a few likes. Can’t see how that equates to embarrassment.
https://qz.com/1045607/the-most-offensive-curse-word-in-english-has-powerful-feminist-origins
Perhaps some food for conversation.
Apologies for the late response Emma - I found the article you shared informative and interesting. I’m not the prude that I suspect the other (anonymous) responder to my comment believes me to be. I swear fairly freely but tend to avoid the word in question. My aversion to it is related to its predominant use as a violent insult when I was growing up - probably the strongest insult used. Ian’s combination of words is an extension of that - I’m sure he wouldn’t wish any of the Tories anything pleasurable! Hence my interpretation of the combination as misogynistic.
But… but… but… Jacob Rees-Mogg is saying it’s all great and could have been a lot worse, and so everything is great actually. And Redwood has a plan, in that the party just has to be more conservative. And chunks of the media seemingly think Ref won two by-elections. And that the Libs are doomed, and so the blue wall is safe (phew).
So obviously Labour has no chance and the Tories are going to win big. Or something.
What makes you think the Tories or Reform deserve respect? They are just fascists with better PR.
Everyone knows how shit the Tories are, they are hoping Labour might be less shit.
If that’s the sum of labour’s ambition, then yay, they did it. Not exactly a high bar.
I think we must be alert to the possibility that there may not actually be an election. They have had their noses in the trough for so long, they are not just going to give that up quietly. There's a real risk that they will manufacture some major crisis or perhaps even a war, as an excuse to delay the election by, initially, a couple of years and then ...
You say: If there is hope for the Conservatives, it lies with the 'don't knows'.
The only way I can see things changing is to have new Independent candidates coming forward.
The "don't knows" and the "fed up with one party but don't fancy any of the rest" would be their target.
The more I think about it, an influx of Independent (and hopefully also competent and determined to do things better) MPs could totally change what actually gets done.
Ian - is this wishful thinking? Or could it happen (logistically, I'm pretty sure it could....if the desire was there... and there does increasingly seem to be a desire for radical change).
I suspect that, given how so many voters treat politics like supporting football teams rather than looking at how individuals might benefit them, and the lack of local media of note, that probably is wishful thinking. Claire Wright’s slow progress shows how tough this is. I imagine if she stands again this year, she’d probably win East Devon at the fourth attempt, but that’s a long haul and she has a lot of local recognition and backing. Dave o’ Random rocking up won’t have the same clout and in most seats would likely just further split the vote. (How might be quite random, given that independents are just as likely to be fiscal and/or social conservatives as progressives.)
Thank you Craig.
I think you are right - it has to be someone already well known in the area - I'm thinking maybe of Independent councilors who have already got themselves elected and know how to do it.
And campaigns have to be local so high name recognition is the key.
So when people go the ballot box they see a name they know on the ballot sheet....
Apparently a lot of people really do only make the decision at that moment....
And if we could get someone really high profile eg Carol Vorderman to say "Look at voting for your local Independent candidate" that would help.
Plus lots of highly visible posters/leaflets everywhere....so that means lots of supporting hands.
But I think the right candidates would know how to enthuse and activate like-minded people into action.