I know you’re not allowed to say this anymore because you’ll be accused of not being sensitive enough to some people who are doing it tough but I’m gonna say it anyway because it’s true
The most infuriating thing about so many of our fellow citizens being prepared to vote for party’s that want to burn down the systems we have built here in the west is that by any objective measure we currently live in the wealthiest most open and most free societies that humans have ever managed to create, if you took someone from the seventies never mind the thirties or the 1800s they would be shocked at the material prosperity we all enjoy, that the vast majority of families can afford overseas holidays, can communicate over vast distances with friends and family at low cost, the choices on our supermarket shelves would look like magic to them, we’ve built this amazing thing and 40% of us have decided the answer is to burn it all down, it’s trurly maddening
Housing is an issue, if I was in England not Australia I’m sure I’d be able to find other things to complain about too but still objective facts show we’re really doing quite well and more people should remember this before risking it all
Everything is so depressing. I can't understand why anyone, anywhere, is drawn to the Far Right. Hateful thoughts and actions never make for a good outcome. Why are they doing it again?!
Farage is a menace. A stain on our country. But no one will tackle him. They are just ignoring him. that won't work! As for the International leaders feeding FR ideas and processes to the masses, why? Why would anyone want Putin to success in Ukraine, or anywhere.
It's all feeling very impossible to me. I'm not as young as I'd like to be these days, so I'm getting caught up in all the bad things without the ability to do anything positive to ward them off. We are fast approaching nightmare conditions. That a convicted felon like Trump is once again so strong in the run for the Whitehouse is terrifying.
They do it because as with all extremists groups they give angry people a scape goat to blame for their misery to stop them looking at the bigger picture. It has been thus for years and the same lies and propaganda tactics are being applied now as then but it's now via tik tok and Facebook rather than facist pamphlets.
Excellent analysis as always. I would really not bet against Farage becoming PM in 2029. The Starmer project has too much damage to undo to make a significant material change in people's lives in the next five years, so we may be in a situation by then where the Tory right have got in bed with Reform, where the right has taken control across Europe and will be trumpeting its successes (any requirement to be truthful having long been ditched) and blaming its failures on immigrants, where Trump Jr or Kushner sits in the White House with the USA having left NATO, and where Putin has taken Ukraine and is pulling everyone's strings. Not a pleasant prospect. Solutions on a postcard, please, and quickly.
Completely agree - for me the really important, salient fact is that the high stakes nature of the fight against authoritarian populism means that whenever there is a setback a sizeable proportion of the liberal democratic-voting bloc loses its minds in a blind panic. Biden having a bad debate would not be getting anything like the level of histrionic reaction it has if people weren't absolutely desperate for the Democratic campaign to be a sure thing against the anti-democracy candidate. It feels to me like we need to develop some better mechanisms for understanding when a political project is or isn't working, so there isn't a massive outbreak of hysteria every time there is a blip - and to recognise when the blip isn't a blip but rather a substantive danger signal.
I imagine one of the most important things to do, for countries about to get taken over by populists, is fight as hard as they can to keep press and legal freedom. Orban is what happens if you lose it… populists need to control the narrative, so I hope the French press is up to snuff.
A paradox/black irony is the Tories deserve to be utterly smashed for what they’ve done to us over the last fourteen years, yet the more smashed they are on Friday the more likely they are to be the victim of a reverse takeover by Farage. The most consequential event to hit UK politics over the last 15 years was him walking away from that light air crash. All we can fall back on is our history of rejecting fascists and hope it holds on the 21st Century. But it’s a slim hope
Excellent piece, my own kids and friends could not understand why I was so down after brexit. I tried explaining that it was The thin end of the wedge it was where things started and where it led was all bad. Sadly I'm being proved more right as each year goes by we are all far far worse off for it. Hopefully I am too old to be here when everything completely degenerates but my children will be and my grandchildren will be so it's not alright and somehow it has to stop.
It is not your remit, and so this is not a criticism, but as someone living in what is now called the Indo-Pacific I wonder how global are your assertions if they don't countenance most of the world's population. Xi and Modhi and their national paths are more of an issue to the southern hemisphere and the world i think, tho Mr Biden-Trump, Mr Sunak-Sharmer and Mr Putin or whatever euro config emerges does matter somewhat. But maybe not that much
A view from France. I remember François Hollande saying that the British were Lucky in that you still had two old style parties because what Macron had done is desroy the old system and it was always going to end badly. How right he was....
Barbara Tuchman wrote a majestic history of Europe 1890-1914, she called it The proud tower. Taken from a Poe poem, the full line in the verse is "from the proud tower at the top of the town. Death looks gigantically down". It is a grim morning.
Macron took a huge gamble with En Marche, and he’s taken another with this election. The gamble is letting RN win for now in the legislature, while he remains able to block them from the Elysee. The hope is they will go the way populists tend to in office and peter out before the presidential elections in two and a half years time. Stakes don’t come much higher.
I don’t think that that was his gamble. He laid down the gauntlet to the French after the European elections that if they wanted fascism, they had to choose it.I think he believed that they wouldn’t and that they would abandon the extremes as he has called both NFP and RN and return to Renaissance/ En Marche.. unfortunately his personal unpopularity was a barrier to that. If we do avoid RN it will be because the left has called on all French Democrats to provide a barrage.
It may well be what you suggest was Plan B, but it will cause untold economic damage in the meantime, and there is no guarantee that they will have had time to screw up spectacularly enough to prevent Le Pen from becoming president.
If this is the end for Macron s project it is a great shame because he was trying desperately to reform France and make it capable of competing economically for the 21st century. The pension reforms, as moderate as they seem to us with the last straw for both left and right. Both sides have promised to appeal them, and if they do, given the generosity of the provision, the country won’t be able to pay in about 10 years time.
I agree that it may be too short a timeframe for Macron’s gambit, and also that arrogance around his personal popularity will have played a substantial role. I do think however that the best way to neutralise the populists is to invite them to deliver and get out of the way while they trip over themselves, and suspect that it at least partner Macron’s strategy, if only because there is no reason to assume RN voters in the EP election would be likely to vote differently in a legislative election so shortly thereafter. The risk of course is that they learn and improve, and prepare for a second go, like Trump and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.
I admit I’m scared. I thought that when people had had enough of Culture Wars and the reality of populists and the Far Right that it would all calm down. It feels instead like we’re entering a new phase. A worse one. Putin has already waged a different kind of war. An information war. The kind where no shots are fired. One none of us were prepared for. I look at most newspaper headlines grouped together on the stands and I wonder whose side they’re on. This isn’t politics as usual but I’m not sure many journalists know HOW to call it out even if they wanted to, especially when there’s this culture of “savvy lying”. It’s a monumental responsibility Keir Starmer has now. I don’t envy him.
"The reason that Britain therefore seems like a diamond in the rough is precisely because we fell to populism first" This is the absolute heart of the matter, because we in the UK fell for the emperors new clothes shtick (I use we losely as many of us never fell for it and never will) of Brexit we have seen the error in our folly early and are paying the price for it way earlier than our neighbours we have found out the hard way how populism fails and now, at least in terms of the Tory right rebels it is not popular anymore so we are seeing the light whilst the rest of the western world stumbles in darkness (beautifully put). It is terrifying the prospect of Le Penn, Orlando and Trump dancing to Putin's tune is terrifying I fear for what is coming next and hope for my young sons future that more and more people who are turning to dark leaders see the light before it's too late.
I disagree with one point. Macron did nothing to create a sustainable middle-ground French political party. His first majority was substantial but he needed to create a political party rooted in every town and city (Le Pen understood this). He didn’t, and he started by insulting the 1000’s of local mayors around France.
According to many opinion leaders in France (leaders who are far superior to those in the UK) Macron doesn’t asked for advice, and doesn’t listen when it’s offered.
Sarko was “bling”, Holland was dull except for his scooter which was sold recently, what will Macron be labelled as, the “Emperor without clothes”?
This is a fair point. I think you can also argue that Macron's domestic accomplishments are very limited so he has a slim record to stand on. But then, Biden's domestic record is very impressive and it seems to have made little difference.
And the most depressing sight last night was watching the various leftists taking chunks off each other while the RN polished turds just sat there trying to look reasonable (and they mostly succeeded).
France also still has its Corbyn - Jean-Luc Melanchon - and until he goes it will be impossible to create a sensible socialist left.
The big problem when fighting extremists is that moderates - those believing in democracy - go about the task in the belief that it's a level playing field. Extremists do their utmost to ensure that it isn't. Lying and cheating is not just something they do - it is at the core of their strategy.
They tap into the emotions of those that feel disenfranchised. They tell the unwitting that their lives are much worse - and that the only solution is a "strong leader". They then blame minorities for the, fictional, "your country has gone to hell" state.
They buy the "referees". And, as we saw yesterday in the US - with SCOTUS declaring: yes Presidents ARE Kings - those "referees" further stack the game in favour of extremists. If Trump is elected in November, he will dismantle NATO; hand Ukraine to Putin; and seek revenge against all those that oppose him.
France? Ha! Minor detail. Look over the pond if you want to see something truly frightening.
I know you’re not allowed to say this anymore because you’ll be accused of not being sensitive enough to some people who are doing it tough but I’m gonna say it anyway because it’s true
The most infuriating thing about so many of our fellow citizens being prepared to vote for party’s that want to burn down the systems we have built here in the west is that by any objective measure we currently live in the wealthiest most open and most free societies that humans have ever managed to create, if you took someone from the seventies never mind the thirties or the 1800s they would be shocked at the material prosperity we all enjoy, that the vast majority of families can afford overseas holidays, can communicate over vast distances with friends and family at low cost, the choices on our supermarket shelves would look like magic to them, we’ve built this amazing thing and 40% of us have decided the answer is to burn it all down, it’s trurly maddening
Housing is an issue, if I was in England not Australia I’m sure I’d be able to find other things to complain about too but still objective facts show we’re really doing quite well and more people should remember this before risking it all
Everything is so depressing. I can't understand why anyone, anywhere, is drawn to the Far Right. Hateful thoughts and actions never make for a good outcome. Why are they doing it again?!
Farage is a menace. A stain on our country. But no one will tackle him. They are just ignoring him. that won't work! As for the International leaders feeding FR ideas and processes to the masses, why? Why would anyone want Putin to success in Ukraine, or anywhere.
It's all feeling very impossible to me. I'm not as young as I'd like to be these days, so I'm getting caught up in all the bad things without the ability to do anything positive to ward them off. We are fast approaching nightmare conditions. That a convicted felon like Trump is once again so strong in the run for the Whitehouse is terrifying.
They do it because as with all extremists groups they give angry people a scape goat to blame for their misery to stop them looking at the bigger picture. It has been thus for years and the same lies and propaganda tactics are being applied now as then but it's now via tik tok and Facebook rather than facist pamphlets.
Excellent analysis as always. I would really not bet against Farage becoming PM in 2029. The Starmer project has too much damage to undo to make a significant material change in people's lives in the next five years, so we may be in a situation by then where the Tory right have got in bed with Reform, where the right has taken control across Europe and will be trumpeting its successes (any requirement to be truthful having long been ditched) and blaming its failures on immigrants, where Trump Jr or Kushner sits in the White House with the USA having left NATO, and where Putin has taken Ukraine and is pulling everyone's strings. Not a pleasant prospect. Solutions on a postcard, please, and quickly.
Aye, that's the fear.
Completely agree - for me the really important, salient fact is that the high stakes nature of the fight against authoritarian populism means that whenever there is a setback a sizeable proportion of the liberal democratic-voting bloc loses its minds in a blind panic. Biden having a bad debate would not be getting anything like the level of histrionic reaction it has if people weren't absolutely desperate for the Democratic campaign to be a sure thing against the anti-democracy candidate. It feels to me like we need to develop some better mechanisms for understanding when a political project is or isn't working, so there isn't a massive outbreak of hysteria every time there is a blip - and to recognise when the blip isn't a blip but rather a substantive danger signal.
I imagine one of the most important things to do, for countries about to get taken over by populists, is fight as hard as they can to keep press and legal freedom. Orban is what happens if you lose it… populists need to control the narrative, so I hope the French press is up to snuff.
A paradox/black irony is the Tories deserve to be utterly smashed for what they’ve done to us over the last fourteen years, yet the more smashed they are on Friday the more likely they are to be the victim of a reverse takeover by Farage. The most consequential event to hit UK politics over the last 15 years was him walking away from that light air crash. All we can fall back on is our history of rejecting fascists and hope it holds on the 21st Century. But it’s a slim hope
Excellent piece, my own kids and friends could not understand why I was so down after brexit. I tried explaining that it was The thin end of the wedge it was where things started and where it led was all bad. Sadly I'm being proved more right as each year goes by we are all far far worse off for it. Hopefully I am too old to be here when everything completely degenerates but my children will be and my grandchildren will be so it's not alright and somehow it has to stop.
Persuasive and, as always, quotable.
It is not your remit, and so this is not a criticism, but as someone living in what is now called the Indo-Pacific I wonder how global are your assertions if they don't countenance most of the world's population. Xi and Modhi and their national paths are more of an issue to the southern hemisphere and the world i think, tho Mr Biden-Trump, Mr Sunak-Sharmer and Mr Putin or whatever euro config emerges does matter somewhat. But maybe not that much
A view from France. I remember François Hollande saying that the British were Lucky in that you still had two old style parties because what Macron had done is desroy the old system and it was always going to end badly. How right he was....
Barbara Tuchman wrote a majestic history of Europe 1890-1914, she called it The proud tower. Taken from a Poe poem, the full line in the verse is "from the proud tower at the top of the town. Death looks gigantically down". It is a grim morning.
Macron took a huge gamble with En Marche, and he’s taken another with this election. The gamble is letting RN win for now in the legislature, while he remains able to block them from the Elysee. The hope is they will go the way populists tend to in office and peter out before the presidential elections in two and a half years time. Stakes don’t come much higher.
I don’t think that that was his gamble. He laid down the gauntlet to the French after the European elections that if they wanted fascism, they had to choose it.I think he believed that they wouldn’t and that they would abandon the extremes as he has called both NFP and RN and return to Renaissance/ En Marche.. unfortunately his personal unpopularity was a barrier to that. If we do avoid RN it will be because the left has called on all French Democrats to provide a barrage.
It may well be what you suggest was Plan B, but it will cause untold economic damage in the meantime, and there is no guarantee that they will have had time to screw up spectacularly enough to prevent Le Pen from becoming president.
If this is the end for Macron s project it is a great shame because he was trying desperately to reform France and make it capable of competing economically for the 21st century. The pension reforms, as moderate as they seem to us with the last straw for both left and right. Both sides have promised to appeal them, and if they do, given the generosity of the provision, the country won’t be able to pay in about 10 years time.
I agree that it may be too short a timeframe for Macron’s gambit, and also that arrogance around his personal popularity will have played a substantial role. I do think however that the best way to neutralise the populists is to invite them to deliver and get out of the way while they trip over themselves, and suspect that it at least partner Macron’s strategy, if only because there is no reason to assume RN voters in the EP election would be likely to vote differently in a legislative election so shortly thereafter. The risk of course is that they learn and improve, and prepare for a second go, like Trump and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.
God, I hope you re wrong, but I fear you could be right.
It’s hard to imagine playing with higher stakes.
I admit I’m scared. I thought that when people had had enough of Culture Wars and the reality of populists and the Far Right that it would all calm down. It feels instead like we’re entering a new phase. A worse one. Putin has already waged a different kind of war. An information war. The kind where no shots are fired. One none of us were prepared for. I look at most newspaper headlines grouped together on the stands and I wonder whose side they’re on. This isn’t politics as usual but I’m not sure many journalists know HOW to call it out even if they wanted to, especially when there’s this culture of “savvy lying”. It’s a monumental responsibility Keir Starmer has now. I don’t envy him.
"The reason that Britain therefore seems like a diamond in the rough is precisely because we fell to populism first" This is the absolute heart of the matter, because we in the UK fell for the emperors new clothes shtick (I use we losely as many of us never fell for it and never will) of Brexit we have seen the error in our folly early and are paying the price for it way earlier than our neighbours we have found out the hard way how populism fails and now, at least in terms of the Tory right rebels it is not popular anymore so we are seeing the light whilst the rest of the western world stumbles in darkness (beautifully put). It is terrifying the prospect of Le Penn, Orlando and Trump dancing to Putin's tune is terrifying I fear for what is coming next and hope for my young sons future that more and more people who are turning to dark leaders see the light before it's too late.
Ian, your grasp of European politics, policy coupled with an ability to analyse and then present in way that gives great clarity is appreciated
I disagree with one point. Macron did nothing to create a sustainable middle-ground French political party. His first majority was substantial but he needed to create a political party rooted in every town and city (Le Pen understood this). He didn’t, and he started by insulting the 1000’s of local mayors around France.
According to many opinion leaders in France (leaders who are far superior to those in the UK) Macron doesn’t asked for advice, and doesn’t listen when it’s offered.
Sarko was “bling”, Holland was dull except for his scooter which was sold recently, what will Macron be labelled as, the “Emperor without clothes”?
This is a fair point. I think you can also argue that Macron's domestic accomplishments are very limited so he has a slim record to stand on. But then, Biden's domestic record is very impressive and it seems to have made little difference.
Exactly this.
And the most depressing sight last night was watching the various leftists taking chunks off each other while the RN polished turds just sat there trying to look reasonable (and they mostly succeeded).
France also still has its Corbyn - Jean-Luc Melanchon - and until he goes it will be impossible to create a sensible socialist left.
The big problem when fighting extremists is that moderates - those believing in democracy - go about the task in the belief that it's a level playing field. Extremists do their utmost to ensure that it isn't. Lying and cheating is not just something they do - it is at the core of their strategy.
They tap into the emotions of those that feel disenfranchised. They tell the unwitting that their lives are much worse - and that the only solution is a "strong leader". They then blame minorities for the, fictional, "your country has gone to hell" state.
They buy the "referees". And, as we saw yesterday in the US - with SCOTUS declaring: yes Presidents ARE Kings - those "referees" further stack the game in favour of extremists. If Trump is elected in November, he will dismantle NATO; hand Ukraine to Putin; and seek revenge against all those that oppose him.
France? Ha! Minor detail. Look over the pond if you want to see something truly frightening.