Yes to all of this. As satisfying as it will be to see those bastards get the public humiliation they deserve at the ballot box - and rest assured I'll be celebrating it with the rest of you - I do still have that nagging worry in the back of my mind about what happens afterwards. Even when "our" side, or "the good guys" are in charge, we still need an opposition of sensible adults. I'm not arrogant enough to claim that "my" side are right 100% of the time, and I'm not naive enough to believe that the "good" ones will always be the best option (or even stay "good" indefinitely).
I desperately hope that there will be some new Rory Stewarts and Michael Heseltines to replace the current crop of useless deluded cranks. It's also important to remember that here's a lot of people out there who will soon be politically homeless, and just because I respectfully disagree with a lot of what they believe in, I still want to see them fairly represented.
I think people need to be careful what they wish for. The eradication of the Conservative Party at the next General Election might seem fun. But at best Labour will poll in the mid-40s and yet from that get perhaps anything up to 80% of the seats. It will be insanely dominant. Some seat projections have the Lib Dems(!) in opposition, with under 50 seats. So that removes consensus politics entirely, unless Labour is smart and decides to bring in others for a wider remit. More likely we’d see 1997 again, with ‘big beasts’ throwing toys out of prams for the barest hint that cooperation might be a nice idea.
So Labour would therefore need to do a lot of stuff very quickly, which has a massive positive impact on the country. But positive in what way? The economics are one thing. But Labour also has an authoritarian bent. So does it continue to appease the social conservatives and ignore liberal voters? Or does it tear down some of the more draconian policies the Tories put in place and risk annoying the right-wing press and nativist voters? Either way, you can imagine Labour might in fact get its Boris Johnson moment, in the sense of having an awful lot of power, and yet that power being more precarious than anyone might have realised.
That’s why I’m unsure about the decade in power comment. Although Ian here at least moderates that compared to other commentators, who seem to – as they did in 1997 and again in 2019 – argue that the dominant party will forever rule. With a relentless right-wing press and remaining Tories no longer having to back up their headlines with something concrete, Labour will be subject to a constant stream of negativity. And although its majority will be huge, its lead in the vote is far smaller. We could feasibly see a backlash where Labour ends up out in its arse after one term, and the Tories back in on a lowish vote share. Or perhaps Reform learns quickly and does the unthinkable.
My hope is that Labour won’t be arrogant and that it won’t be conservative. My hope is it will recognise that even a massive win in a general election isn’t forever, and that it can lay the groundwork for a better future in a number of ways, including being much more progressive and inclusive than it’s sounding right now. It would need to blaze out of the gates and do things quickly. But in the background, it could also work with others to further the notion of consensus politics in the UK. A sensible Labour Party would then – within this first term – from its position of strength shift the Commons to a representative one. But I’m fully prepared to be disappointed on all fronts.
It’s a balanced piece but I will be dancing on the grave in the desert for a good while. Growing up in the 70s I struggle to point to anything other than self interest and corrosive capitalism during their times in office. For the few always so when they do return hard to see that changing.
I have a pet theory, which I'm happy for anyone to take over and turn into a deep academic view, or to disprove.
In my pet theory, it all starts to go wrong with the rise of UKIP.
If you look at UK politics from 1950 to 1990, there's a very clear asymmetry between the left and the right; on the left, if the left wing of Labour isn't far left enough for you, there's several parties (such as the Greens, the Communists and more) where the worst people will think of you is that you're a political bore whose conversation is to be avoided. In contrast, on the right, the memories of WW2 make the parties to the right of the Conservative Party right wing socially unacceptable - "I lost friends fighting against Hitler and Mussolini, and now you're telling me that they had a point".
This meant that the Tories basically didn't have to care about the far right - they could remain moderate overall, knowing that people to the right of the Tory centre were stuck with a choice between trying to influence the moderate and left-of-Tory-centre, or becoming social pariahs in a far-right party (like the National Front, or the BNSM). It thus only had to worry about its left-wing support moving further left, and switching to Labour. On the other hand, Labour had to get used to the idea that not only did it have a steady exchange of right-wing supporters moving right and switching from Labour to Tory, but also left-wing supporters moving left and switching to Green, Communist or other left-wing parties.
UKIP, and now Reform UK, change this; there is a party to the right of the Tory moderates that is socially acceptable to support; you will not lose your invites to County dinner parties just because you're right of the Tory centre, whereas you would if you supported an explicitly neo-Nazi party. And the Tory reaction to this has been to panic - they're lurched around trying to return to the position where they are the only right-of-centre party that's socially acceptable.
This now leaves them with a deep problem; in moving to cripple UKIP and Reform UK, they've shed voters on their left, and there's no guarantee that they can successfully end the threat (to the Tories) of Reform UK and then move back left to reclaim the voters they've lost (partly because the voters they've lost may have shifted allegiance and aren't interested in coming back, and partly because they can't move too far towards the centre without rekindling the Reform UK threat).
The only hope they have is to accept that UK politics has changed; they are never going to hold all right-wing voters who aren't neo-Nazis ever again, and they have to work out how they survive in a world where there's far-right parties who are socially as acceptable as they are, just as Labour has worked out how to survive in a world where there are far-left parties that are as socially acceptable as Labour.
Without an effective Loyal Opposition Parliamentary Democracy won’t work well enough in a complex situation; and most situations we face are complex. I seem to remember a quote from Marghanita Laski in a Radio discussion “all change costs, but rapid change costs a lot”. In my view, very true, and it’s because in pursuit of political impact the time and expertise for proper scrutiny is jettisoned from the change process. And expensive errors are then unavoidable.
This is brilliant, Ian. As usual, I'm blown away by the power of your words to accurately (and entertainingly) describe the malaise brought on by the Tories. The paragraph beginning "At its best, conservatism warns us ..", conveys a really important idea that I have never seen expressed with such beauty.
This may be one of the best pieces you have written. Whilst my sympathies have always been toward the Labour Party my parents were old-fashioned One Nation Tories and my father was for many years a Conservative councillor. I am so happy that they did not live to see what has happened to their party, it would make them weep.
Particularly enjoyed this one, especially looking at what 'decent conservatism' should be. (Also, while I'm here – I do enjoy your movie recommendations. I vote for more of those.)
As an American, this piece struck me deeply and gives me hope. The Republican party here has become completely unmoored from any sense of reality over the last 50 years, moving to hyperspeed insanity in 2017. They went from a necessary counterweight to a clown car filled with lunatics that think governance is solely about hate. I hope that, as a country, we can collectively wake up from our infotainment daze and right the ship before it's too late. However, my faith in the American people is deeply shaken. I know that our reputation is not great, perhaps deservedly so. If the wrong outcome happens this November, it's over. Shudder to think how that will ripple.
Where is the Tory soul is a question I ask myself a lot. I don’t think all the moderates were purged. Many were lured by the personal advancement Brexit offered. Didn’t Truss used to be a Remainer? You see I don’t think they really believe the nonsense they spout. They just lie incessantly. Brexit rewarded mediocre careerists in a way that being good at your job never would have. I want this party extinct. They deserve it. They weren’t winning majorities for a while before Brexit. Suddenly they get an 80 plus majority and this is what they unleash. I am furious. Im not even sure the rot started with May but with Thatcher. I distinctly remember how greed was celebrated back then. She was no moderate but she wasn’t stupid like this lot and she didn’t lie incessantly. She’d box their bloody ears.
I’m genuinely looking forward to them being defeated. Indeed I would like to see them in 3rd place, because they utterly deserve it after the destruction of the last 14 years. I imagine such a catastrophic defeat might lead to them breaking up into Reform and Conservative and maybe the hope is that some of the moderates might want to be part of the new Conservatives cos all the nutters will be in Reform.
Since the end of the Major government (but also in the latter part of Thatcher the Tories with hinterland and gravitas have been slowly, then quickly, squeezed out by the current lot of nasty, vindictive nobodies. And once they got their Brexit and it was found to be a fundamental waste of time and money they had nowhere to go other than further right and further nasty.
Yes to all of this. As satisfying as it will be to see those bastards get the public humiliation they deserve at the ballot box - and rest assured I'll be celebrating it with the rest of you - I do still have that nagging worry in the back of my mind about what happens afterwards. Even when "our" side, or "the good guys" are in charge, we still need an opposition of sensible adults. I'm not arrogant enough to claim that "my" side are right 100% of the time, and I'm not naive enough to believe that the "good" ones will always be the best option (or even stay "good" indefinitely).
I desperately hope that there will be some new Rory Stewarts and Michael Heseltines to replace the current crop of useless deluded cranks. It's also important to remember that here's a lot of people out there who will soon be politically homeless, and just because I respectfully disagree with a lot of what they believe in, I still want to see them fairly represented.
I think people need to be careful what they wish for. The eradication of the Conservative Party at the next General Election might seem fun. But at best Labour will poll in the mid-40s and yet from that get perhaps anything up to 80% of the seats. It will be insanely dominant. Some seat projections have the Lib Dems(!) in opposition, with under 50 seats. So that removes consensus politics entirely, unless Labour is smart and decides to bring in others for a wider remit. More likely we’d see 1997 again, with ‘big beasts’ throwing toys out of prams for the barest hint that cooperation might be a nice idea.
So Labour would therefore need to do a lot of stuff very quickly, which has a massive positive impact on the country. But positive in what way? The economics are one thing. But Labour also has an authoritarian bent. So does it continue to appease the social conservatives and ignore liberal voters? Or does it tear down some of the more draconian policies the Tories put in place and risk annoying the right-wing press and nativist voters? Either way, you can imagine Labour might in fact get its Boris Johnson moment, in the sense of having an awful lot of power, and yet that power being more precarious than anyone might have realised.
That’s why I’m unsure about the decade in power comment. Although Ian here at least moderates that compared to other commentators, who seem to – as they did in 1997 and again in 2019 – argue that the dominant party will forever rule. With a relentless right-wing press and remaining Tories no longer having to back up their headlines with something concrete, Labour will be subject to a constant stream of negativity. And although its majority will be huge, its lead in the vote is far smaller. We could feasibly see a backlash where Labour ends up out in its arse after one term, and the Tories back in on a lowish vote share. Or perhaps Reform learns quickly and does the unthinkable.
My hope is that Labour won’t be arrogant and that it won’t be conservative. My hope is it will recognise that even a massive win in a general election isn’t forever, and that it can lay the groundwork for a better future in a number of ways, including being much more progressive and inclusive than it’s sounding right now. It would need to blaze out of the gates and do things quickly. But in the background, it could also work with others to further the notion of consensus politics in the UK. A sensible Labour Party would then – within this first term – from its position of strength shift the Commons to a representative one. But I’m fully prepared to be disappointed on all fronts.
Seeing Robert Jenrick is actually no guarantee of remembering Robert Jenrick
It’s a balanced piece but I will be dancing on the grave in the desert for a good while. Growing up in the 70s I struggle to point to anything other than self interest and corrosive capitalism during their times in office. For the few always so when they do return hard to see that changing.
Bloody hell. That's a brilliant piece. Such a great, balanced 'helicopter' view. You are the sanest voice in British politics. 🫡 💪
I have a pet theory, which I'm happy for anyone to take over and turn into a deep academic view, or to disprove.
In my pet theory, it all starts to go wrong with the rise of UKIP.
If you look at UK politics from 1950 to 1990, there's a very clear asymmetry between the left and the right; on the left, if the left wing of Labour isn't far left enough for you, there's several parties (such as the Greens, the Communists and more) where the worst people will think of you is that you're a political bore whose conversation is to be avoided. In contrast, on the right, the memories of WW2 make the parties to the right of the Conservative Party right wing socially unacceptable - "I lost friends fighting against Hitler and Mussolini, and now you're telling me that they had a point".
This meant that the Tories basically didn't have to care about the far right - they could remain moderate overall, knowing that people to the right of the Tory centre were stuck with a choice between trying to influence the moderate and left-of-Tory-centre, or becoming social pariahs in a far-right party (like the National Front, or the BNSM). It thus only had to worry about its left-wing support moving further left, and switching to Labour. On the other hand, Labour had to get used to the idea that not only did it have a steady exchange of right-wing supporters moving right and switching from Labour to Tory, but also left-wing supporters moving left and switching to Green, Communist or other left-wing parties.
UKIP, and now Reform UK, change this; there is a party to the right of the Tory moderates that is socially acceptable to support; you will not lose your invites to County dinner parties just because you're right of the Tory centre, whereas you would if you supported an explicitly neo-Nazi party. And the Tory reaction to this has been to panic - they're lurched around trying to return to the position where they are the only right-of-centre party that's socially acceptable.
This now leaves them with a deep problem; in moving to cripple UKIP and Reform UK, they've shed voters on their left, and there's no guarantee that they can successfully end the threat (to the Tories) of Reform UK and then move back left to reclaim the voters they've lost (partly because the voters they've lost may have shifted allegiance and aren't interested in coming back, and partly because they can't move too far towards the centre without rekindling the Reform UK threat).
The only hope they have is to accept that UK politics has changed; they are never going to hold all right-wing voters who aren't neo-Nazis ever again, and they have to work out how they survive in a world where there's far-right parties who are socially as acceptable as they are, just as Labour has worked out how to survive in a world where there are far-left parties that are as socially acceptable as Labour.
Without an effective Loyal Opposition Parliamentary Democracy won’t work well enough in a complex situation; and most situations we face are complex. I seem to remember a quote from Marghanita Laski in a Radio discussion “all change costs, but rapid change costs a lot”. In my view, very true, and it’s because in pursuit of political impact the time and expertise for proper scrutiny is jettisoned from the change process. And expensive errors are then unavoidable.
This is brilliant, Ian. As usual, I'm blown away by the power of your words to accurately (and entertainingly) describe the malaise brought on by the Tories. The paragraph beginning "At its best, conservatism warns us ..", conveys a really important idea that I have never seen expressed with such beauty.
This may be one of the best pieces you have written. Whilst my sympathies have always been toward the Labour Party my parents were old-fashioned One Nation Tories and my father was for many years a Conservative councillor. I am so happy that they did not live to see what has happened to their party, it would make them weep.
Particularly enjoyed this one, especially looking at what 'decent conservatism' should be. (Also, while I'm here – I do enjoy your movie recommendations. I vote for more of those.)
They don’t deserve to survive. Their fate should be to be banished to the outer wilderness for generations.
As an American, this piece struck me deeply and gives me hope. The Republican party here has become completely unmoored from any sense of reality over the last 50 years, moving to hyperspeed insanity in 2017. They went from a necessary counterweight to a clown car filled with lunatics that think governance is solely about hate. I hope that, as a country, we can collectively wake up from our infotainment daze and right the ship before it's too late. However, my faith in the American people is deeply shaken. I know that our reputation is not great, perhaps deservedly so. If the wrong outcome happens this November, it's over. Shudder to think how that will ripple.
Where is the Tory soul is a question I ask myself a lot. I don’t think all the moderates were purged. Many were lured by the personal advancement Brexit offered. Didn’t Truss used to be a Remainer? You see I don’t think they really believe the nonsense they spout. They just lie incessantly. Brexit rewarded mediocre careerists in a way that being good at your job never would have. I want this party extinct. They deserve it. They weren’t winning majorities for a while before Brexit. Suddenly they get an 80 plus majority and this is what they unleash. I am furious. Im not even sure the rot started with May but with Thatcher. I distinctly remember how greed was celebrated back then. She was no moderate but she wasn’t stupid like this lot and she didn’t lie incessantly. She’d box their bloody ears.
Just superb.
Your best ever, IMHO.
I agree with every word.
Thank you.
Excellent. I will now subscribe.
I’m genuinely looking forward to them being defeated. Indeed I would like to see them in 3rd place, because they utterly deserve it after the destruction of the last 14 years. I imagine such a catastrophic defeat might lead to them breaking up into Reform and Conservative and maybe the hope is that some of the moderates might want to be part of the new Conservatives cos all the nutters will be in Reform.
Since the end of the Major government (but also in the latter part of Thatcher the Tories with hinterland and gravitas have been slowly, then quickly, squeezed out by the current lot of nasty, vindictive nobodies. And once they got their Brexit and it was found to be a fundamental waste of time and money they had nowhere to go other than further right and further nasty.
Is it a shame? I’m not sure to be honest