One of the few things you miss in this blistering, terrifying summary, is the impact on American women (and, as he's the Big Daddy of all global populist wannabe strong men, the impact of women elsewhere). The roll back of reproductive rights, the intentional misogyny (and racism, but you touched on that) of the campaign "rhetoric", seems like a conspiracy (fascist or not) to keep women in their place. It's different for girls, Ian, and you've neglected that in this otherwise brilliant piece.
You're not wrong but this piece is not an attempted summary of everyone who would be tyrannised by his administration. You could just as easily say I've left out Latin American immigrants, which, given that my family are Latin American immigrants living in the US, obviously takes up a lot of my thoughts on the matter. This piece is really about the European experience, from London to Kiev.
@Dominic - That was exactly my reaction too. @Ian - you say "He doesn't want full social control". He is boasting about the overturn of Wade v Roe, which doesn't just take away women's bodily autonomy by forcing them to be incubators. It means doctors are scared to treat women who are miscarrying until it is beyond doubt they are going to die without it. In real life, this seems works out that doctors won't offer life-saving treatment until the woman has gone past the point where her life could be saved. It also stops IVF because each embryo created is deemed to have the rights of a person.
If you can find a copy of Project 25, you will see that the control to be exerted over women's bodies is a priority in other areas, such as the chapter on education.
In fact, Project 25 *is* a blueprint for full social control. Even if you could make a case for Trump himself not wanting "full social control", just look who is standing next to him: JD Vance, who wrote the preface to Project 25 and who would end up as president if Trump were found to be unfit because of dementia. JD Vance, who thinks it was detrimental to give women the vote. He's not too keen on the childless voting either.
Coming back to Trump, he's talking about non-white immigrants as vermin and saying he'll use the military against "the enemy within" - Democrats and anyone who isn't behind him. He has also said he could cut crime by giving the police one day where they could go out and do whatever they wanted to people they believe to be criminals. Don't forget, the US Supreme Court has already said presidents should have full immunity from prosecution for criminal acts carried out in their role as president.
I could go on and on. None of what I have said is supposition. I appreciate you don't want to get too embroiled in the detail of what's happening in the US, but it would take very little research to verify the level of control Trump and those about him intend to exert over the US population if he wins this election, and it will be women and *legal* immigrants who will be too of the list.
Yeah I'm fully aware of Project 2025 and we write about it in our book on Fascism. You're right that there is a desire for social control there. But there is a clear distinction between even that document and the Nazi Gleichschaltung policy, which took control of every facet of life, no matter how minuscule - from chats in bars, to exam questions, to early years clubs - and used it for indoctrination. This does not challenge your concern. You're right to be very worried. But it is simply not the same thing.
I'd like to add climate change to the mix. If Trump wins then that has massive implications for the global fight against climate change - which by some measures is already going quite badly.
This is arguably a greater threat even than that which Ian summarises (although of course they are linked)
I live in New York State. I will of course vote. But I feel the same helplessness and dependence on other people. My vote matters, and yet...it doesn't. I'm really really scared. (My husband and I are having serious conversations about whether we should get a firearm in case of civil unrest. This is not who we are. And yet, here we are.)
Thank you so much. I'm really hopeful that we'll have the sense to elect Kamala. However, I well remember waking up in November 2016 with my phone completely blown up by our friends and family in the UK and Ireland, not to mention my daughter in Australia offering to help us emigrate. And I remember that horrible following week and the many horrible weeks after that.
I'm eligible for Italian citizenship and have that in process. (Granted, Italy has its own problems, but that opens up the whole EU in a way that my husband's stupid useless UK passport no longer does.) I don't want to leave my home until I'm good and ready. I teach law students and I think that's a good and important job that will particularly need to be done if there's a second Trump administration. But I am very concerned about the bottom falling out.
That's a hell of a dark place to be I'm so sorry you are feeling the need to have a conversation like that but I completely understand why, whatever the result history will look back on this and say how the he'll did a man like Trump ever get another seat at this table.
Cult of personality causes so much issues we had the same problem albeit not on the same scale with Boris Johnson who capitalised on his popularity on a now in hindsight misguided tv appearance on a popular news quiz, thank god hes not in central politics and just mouthing off from the sidelines for now at least the vile lying son of a bitch. Thinking of you all out there x
The good thing about being in a mixed English -American marriage is that our countries' politics sort of balance out. When things are really bad over there they're often a little better here and vice versa. So we've found a balance of sorts in our home.
But yes, until all of us sort out the difference between politics and entertainment this kind of thing is going to keep happening. It's frankly embarrassing. Big hugs and best wishes from New York State.
I'm sorry too that you are in such a predicament Victoria. I posted a comment on Ian's disturbing but realistic article and soon after I received an email containing vile sextortion. This having no grounding in reality but what with these deepfake days, who knows. Needless to say I didn't click on any link and reported this to an authority. So, as they say, 'the stakes are indeed high'. I think that all this Trump Trauma concerns women particularly but trans' rights, immigrants' rights etc etc etc. Australia has an intertwined relationship with America so the chill fear is realistic here too. All the many and varied rights being so very wronged. I am also sad that Ian's substack account is being so obviously trolled. He is an excellent writer and we are all lucky to be able to read his point of view.
Thanks to the idiotic electoral college system, most of us over here are in the same boat, waiting for voters in a handful of states to deliver our fate. One note: Trump may not want total social control, but his Christian nationalist allies do (google “seven mountains mandate” if you want to more angry and depressed). And even if Trump loses, they aren’t going away. It’s going to be a long fight.
Absolutely. This is what Ian wrote: "Trump has not always been a fascist. In his first presidential run he was simply a vicious racist cunt. Even today, he still omits several of the qualities that we would associate with Hitler or Mussolini. He's not interested in creating a fascist New Man, for instance, and he's not a totalitarian. He doesn't want full social control."
That's as maybe. The fact is that Trump, if he wins, will be 79 years old when his presidency gets under way. That's old and he's already showing signs of quickening deterioration, both mental and physical. I'd suggest that it may be less important what Trump is or wants than what Vance is and what the figures in the shadows behind him want. From what we know of them, remaking parts of the population is exactly what they want, and that is scary.
I remember when we thought the election of George Dubya was the worst thing that could happen... Equally powerless feeling. But in retrospect it seems almost quaint in comparison!
I was in America over the last couple of weeks, finishing off with a humanist conference a deeply joyful event. But there's the feeling of darkness there too. Is this June 1914 and we're having one last good summer.
Thanks Ian, this articulates very well just how I have been feeling for the last few weeks. The powerlessness is dreadful. I also get pretty upset when I see left leaning people in the US saying they won't vote for Harris because of Gaza. I am fully with them on Gaza, it is horrendous, but what do they think Trump, the man who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, is going to do for Gaza. They need to hold their noses and vote for Harris and then campaign for her to stop supplying Israel with weapons. Anyway fingers-crossed!
Crikey, Ian, hardly the most positive way to start the weekend! I fear you are right about a Trump victory but our powerlessness brings with it such gloom and despair. What to do?
And whilst Aftersun is undoubtedly a beautiful film, it too leaves you with an enduring sadness. I think the only way to cope is to go out and be especially kind to someone, how else to bring some warmth back into our frightened lives? What will you do?
I'm usually a glass more than half-full person but this is exactly how I was feeling last night. I'd still bet on a Harris win but not as convincing as Biden's in 2020 - so weeks of legal wrangling likely ahead of the states' electors heading to Congress for the result.
Exactly. A lot of people seem to think that a Harris win means all our problems are solved. It doesn't. First, it would be massively contested in the courts - the Republicans have already laid the groundwork for this - and there has to be a high chance of more violent protest too. Second, even if she eventually takes the oath of office, she will be President of a country which is dramatically split into polarised camps, all the way from the grass roots to Congress (which can pretty much prevent her from carrying out her policies if it wishes to). Keeping Trump out will be a breath of air, but it's a small air pocket in a collapsed boat with little sign of rescue.
I've been watching from afar, (here in the UK), since the 2020 election - and the "Election Fraud" big lie that Trump and his cronies pushed. And I honestly thought, that after Jan 6, Trump would be finished. The justice system would nail him and he'd be locked up by now.
But... the DOJ was unforgivably slow to act and Trump is a master of legal delay tactics. Helped, of course, by a SCOTUS that he put in place. And also helped, (in the classified documents case), by Trump fangirl Judge Cannon.
I'm pretty pessimistic about the outcome - now less than two weeks away. That the American electorate is evenly split is gob-smacking. I genuinely can't understand how Trump can get 5% of the vote, never mind nearly 50%. That he could get a single vote from anyone other than incredibly stupid white men is... fuck knows... if there's a word for it, please fill in the blank: [__________] It just goes to show, that the play-book used by Hitler is still as effective nearly 100 years later.
And no two ways about it. Trump is a Fascist - to the core.
The billionaire oligarchs are running the show. Trump's VP candidate, J.D. Vance, became a Senator thanks to Peter Thiel's help. And now thanks to Elon Musk almost-limitless resources, it's difficult to see how a Trump win can be avoided. Trump is old and mentally feeble, but I would guess within 6 months he'll resign and we'll be dealing with President Vance.
The Trump situation is terrifying. What I find really disturbing is the sheer number of people in the US prepared to vote for him. I cannot get out of my mind how there are so many adult human brains that simply cannot or will not see the danger. Or assess what their support for Trump says about them. As you say, we are impotent to change anything, like watching two trains speeding towards each other from half a mile away and praying there is a set of points that will avert the catastrophe.
Thanks for the film suggestion. I watched Aftersun in a state of rising trepidation about what I thought was about to happen but then it didn't.Something else happened instead, which I won't spoil for anyone but will say that you have to pay attention right to the end.
If you want to watch a film about what is happening in the US (and to an extent our own country) then I recommend 'Idiocracy', which you can stream on various sites or there's a low res version for free somewhere on YouTube, I think.
Agree with most of this (and appreciate the succinct articulation of why the might-is-right attitude should appall decent people) but - as someone who is neither European nor American - not sure about the notion that Europe can't do much more, and certainly not sure that Britain and France are Europe's only major military powers (!). That feels like dated military thinking. Only nuclear powers, sure - let's hope it doesn't come to that - but at this point Ukraine itself has one of Europe's largest and most experienced armies; in terms of sheer troop numbers, Germany has a larger army than Britain and Greece's is about on par. If we go full WWII-redux Clancy-esque wargaming, the EU alone has a population 2.5x the size of Russia's, and is obviously a richer and more advanced bloc.
Obviously none of that should matter because Ukraine's freedom is important in and of itself, but my detached impression is that aside from the US' aid to Ukraine getting hijacked into their own culture war, within Europe the Baltics and Poland are lifting their weight while all the countries further west are (inexplicably) umming and ahhing about providing some outdated tanks to help their own buffer zone survive another month.
I'm oscillating between wanting the election over, so we know, and never wanting it to arrive. I can't understand his support. I can't understand the weak singleminded thought processes people are using to throw democracy and global stability away over Israel/Palestine, but how they have forgotten Ukraine. I am reading of people actively voting Trump to punish Joe Biden for supporting Israel. if that's not cutting your nose off to spite your face I don't know what is.
American's largely seem incapable of comprehending the world. There is no world, just America to them. The position we are all in now because of American beer swilling, hotdog eating blokes in Arizona (other States are available) is intolerable.
One of the few things you miss in this blistering, terrifying summary, is the impact on American women (and, as he's the Big Daddy of all global populist wannabe strong men, the impact of women elsewhere). The roll back of reproductive rights, the intentional misogyny (and racism, but you touched on that) of the campaign "rhetoric", seems like a conspiracy (fascist or not) to keep women in their place. It's different for girls, Ian, and you've neglected that in this otherwise brilliant piece.
You're not wrong but this piece is not an attempted summary of everyone who would be tyrannised by his administration. You could just as easily say I've left out Latin American immigrants, which, given that my family are Latin American immigrants living in the US, obviously takes up a lot of my thoughts on the matter. This piece is really about the European experience, from London to Kiev.
@Dominic - That was exactly my reaction too. @Ian - you say "He doesn't want full social control". He is boasting about the overturn of Wade v Roe, which doesn't just take away women's bodily autonomy by forcing them to be incubators. It means doctors are scared to treat women who are miscarrying until it is beyond doubt they are going to die without it. In real life, this seems works out that doctors won't offer life-saving treatment until the woman has gone past the point where her life could be saved. It also stops IVF because each embryo created is deemed to have the rights of a person.
If you can find a copy of Project 25, you will see that the control to be exerted over women's bodies is a priority in other areas, such as the chapter on education.
In fact, Project 25 *is* a blueprint for full social control. Even if you could make a case for Trump himself not wanting "full social control", just look who is standing next to him: JD Vance, who wrote the preface to Project 25 and who would end up as president if Trump were found to be unfit because of dementia. JD Vance, who thinks it was detrimental to give women the vote. He's not too keen on the childless voting either.
Coming back to Trump, he's talking about non-white immigrants as vermin and saying he'll use the military against "the enemy within" - Democrats and anyone who isn't behind him. He has also said he could cut crime by giving the police one day where they could go out and do whatever they wanted to people they believe to be criminals. Don't forget, the US Supreme Court has already said presidents should have full immunity from prosecution for criminal acts carried out in their role as president.
I could go on and on. None of what I have said is supposition. I appreciate you don't want to get too embroiled in the detail of what's happening in the US, but it would take very little research to verify the level of control Trump and those about him intend to exert over the US population if he wins this election, and it will be women and *legal* immigrants who will be too of the list.
Yeah I'm fully aware of Project 2025 and we write about it in our book on Fascism. You're right that there is a desire for social control there. But there is a clear distinction between even that document and the Nazi Gleichschaltung policy, which took control of every facet of life, no matter how minuscule - from chats in bars, to exam questions, to early years clubs - and used it for indoctrination. This does not challenge your concern. You're right to be very worried. But it is simply not the same thing.
Sorry. Not @Dominic but @Jane.
Agree with all this, very well summarised.
I'd like to add climate change to the mix. If Trump wins then that has massive implications for the global fight against climate change - which by some measures is already going quite badly.
This is arguably a greater threat even than that which Ian summarises (although of course they are linked)
I live in New York State. I will of course vote. But I feel the same helplessness and dependence on other people. My vote matters, and yet...it doesn't. I'm really really scared. (My husband and I are having serious conversations about whether we should get a firearm in case of civil unrest. This is not who we are. And yet, here we are.)
Very sorry to read this Victoria.
Thank you so much. I'm really hopeful that we'll have the sense to elect Kamala. However, I well remember waking up in November 2016 with my phone completely blown up by our friends and family in the UK and Ireland, not to mention my daughter in Australia offering to help us emigrate. And I remember that horrible following week and the many horrible weeks after that.
I'm eligible for Italian citizenship and have that in process. (Granted, Italy has its own problems, but that opens up the whole EU in a way that my husband's stupid useless UK passport no longer does.) I don't want to leave my home until I'm good and ready. I teach law students and I think that's a good and important job that will particularly need to be done if there's a second Trump administration. But I am very concerned about the bottom falling out.
That's a hell of a dark place to be I'm so sorry you are feeling the need to have a conversation like that but I completely understand why, whatever the result history will look back on this and say how the he'll did a man like Trump ever get another seat at this table.
I so appreciate the kind words. I am still trying to figure out how he got in the door in the first place. (TV. That's the answer.)
Cult of personality causes so much issues we had the same problem albeit not on the same scale with Boris Johnson who capitalised on his popularity on a now in hindsight misguided tv appearance on a popular news quiz, thank god hes not in central politics and just mouthing off from the sidelines for now at least the vile lying son of a bitch. Thinking of you all out there x
The good thing about being in a mixed English -American marriage is that our countries' politics sort of balance out. When things are really bad over there they're often a little better here and vice versa. So we've found a balance of sorts in our home.
But yes, until all of us sort out the difference between politics and entertainment this kind of thing is going to keep happening. It's frankly embarrassing. Big hugs and best wishes from New York State.
I'm sorry too that you are in such a predicament Victoria. I posted a comment on Ian's disturbing but realistic article and soon after I received an email containing vile sextortion. This having no grounding in reality but what with these deepfake days, who knows. Needless to say I didn't click on any link and reported this to an authority. So, as they say, 'the stakes are indeed high'. I think that all this Trump Trauma concerns women particularly but trans' rights, immigrants' rights etc etc etc. Australia has an intertwined relationship with America so the chill fear is realistic here too. All the many and varied rights being so very wronged. I am also sad that Ian's substack account is being so obviously trolled. He is an excellent writer and we are all lucky to be able to read his point of view.
This is deeply shocking. What an appalling thing to happen.
Yep, does nothing for the trust department.
Thanks to the idiotic electoral college system, most of us over here are in the same boat, waiting for voters in a handful of states to deliver our fate. One note: Trump may not want total social control, but his Christian nationalist allies do (google “seven mountains mandate” if you want to more angry and depressed). And even if Trump loses, they aren’t going away. It’s going to be a long fight.
Absolutely. This is what Ian wrote: "Trump has not always been a fascist. In his first presidential run he was simply a vicious racist cunt. Even today, he still omits several of the qualities that we would associate with Hitler or Mussolini. He's not interested in creating a fascist New Man, for instance, and he's not a totalitarian. He doesn't want full social control."
That's as maybe. The fact is that Trump, if he wins, will be 79 years old when his presidency gets under way. That's old and he's already showing signs of quickening deterioration, both mental and physical. I'd suggest that it may be less important what Trump is or wants than what Vance is and what the figures in the shadows behind him want. From what we know of them, remaking parts of the population is exactly what they want, and that is scary.
I remember when we thought the election of George Dubya was the worst thing that could happen... Equally powerless feeling. But in retrospect it seems almost quaint in comparison!
I was in America over the last couple of weeks, finishing off with a humanist conference a deeply joyful event. But there's the feeling of darkness there too. Is this June 1914 and we're having one last good summer.
Thanks Ian, this articulates very well just how I have been feeling for the last few weeks. The powerlessness is dreadful. I also get pretty upset when I see left leaning people in the US saying they won't vote for Harris because of Gaza. I am fully with them on Gaza, it is horrendous, but what do they think Trump, the man who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, is going to do for Gaza. They need to hold their noses and vote for Harris and then campaign for her to stop supplying Israel with weapons. Anyway fingers-crossed!
Your review of Aftersun is masterful - I agree with every word.
I choose to trust that the hellish brutal reality of a trump victory and the sublime poignant dreamscape of that film cannot exist at the same time.
Crikey, Ian, hardly the most positive way to start the weekend! I fear you are right about a Trump victory but our powerlessness brings with it such gloom and despair. What to do?
And whilst Aftersun is undoubtedly a beautiful film, it too leaves you with an enduring sadness. I think the only way to cope is to go out and be especially kind to someone, how else to bring some warmth back into our frightened lives? What will you do?
I'm usually a glass more than half-full person but this is exactly how I was feeling last night. I'd still bet on a Harris win but not as convincing as Biden's in 2020 - so weeks of legal wrangling likely ahead of the states' electors heading to Congress for the result.
It's not the legal wrangling I'm worried about, but a Jan 6th-on-steroids...
Exactly. A lot of people seem to think that a Harris win means all our problems are solved. It doesn't. First, it would be massively contested in the courts - the Republicans have already laid the groundwork for this - and there has to be a high chance of more violent protest too. Second, even if she eventually takes the oath of office, she will be President of a country which is dramatically split into polarised camps, all the way from the grass roots to Congress (which can pretty much prevent her from carrying out her policies if it wishes to). Keeping Trump out will be a breath of air, but it's a small air pocket in a collapsed boat with little sign of rescue.
I've been watching from afar, (here in the UK), since the 2020 election - and the "Election Fraud" big lie that Trump and his cronies pushed. And I honestly thought, that after Jan 6, Trump would be finished. The justice system would nail him and he'd be locked up by now.
But... the DOJ was unforgivably slow to act and Trump is a master of legal delay tactics. Helped, of course, by a SCOTUS that he put in place. And also helped, (in the classified documents case), by Trump fangirl Judge Cannon.
I'm pretty pessimistic about the outcome - now less than two weeks away. That the American electorate is evenly split is gob-smacking. I genuinely can't understand how Trump can get 5% of the vote, never mind nearly 50%. That he could get a single vote from anyone other than incredibly stupid white men is... fuck knows... if there's a word for it, please fill in the blank: [__________] It just goes to show, that the play-book used by Hitler is still as effective nearly 100 years later.
And no two ways about it. Trump is a Fascist - to the core.
The billionaire oligarchs are running the show. Trump's VP candidate, J.D. Vance, became a Senator thanks to Peter Thiel's help. And now thanks to Elon Musk almost-limitless resources, it's difficult to see how a Trump win can be avoided. Trump is old and mentally feeble, but I would guess within 6 months he'll resign and we'll be dealing with President Vance.
The Trump situation is terrifying. What I find really disturbing is the sheer number of people in the US prepared to vote for him. I cannot get out of my mind how there are so many adult human brains that simply cannot or will not see the danger. Or assess what their support for Trump says about them. As you say, we are impotent to change anything, like watching two trains speeding towards each other from half a mile away and praying there is a set of points that will avert the catastrophe.
Thanks for the film suggestion. I watched Aftersun in a state of rising trepidation about what I thought was about to happen but then it didn't.Something else happened instead, which I won't spoil for anyone but will say that you have to pay attention right to the end.
If you want to watch a film about what is happening in the US (and to an extent our own country) then I recommend 'Idiocracy', which you can stream on various sites or there's a low res version for free somewhere on YouTube, I think.
Agree with most of this (and appreciate the succinct articulation of why the might-is-right attitude should appall decent people) but - as someone who is neither European nor American - not sure about the notion that Europe can't do much more, and certainly not sure that Britain and France are Europe's only major military powers (!). That feels like dated military thinking. Only nuclear powers, sure - let's hope it doesn't come to that - but at this point Ukraine itself has one of Europe's largest and most experienced armies; in terms of sheer troop numbers, Germany has a larger army than Britain and Greece's is about on par. If we go full WWII-redux Clancy-esque wargaming, the EU alone has a population 2.5x the size of Russia's, and is obviously a richer and more advanced bloc.
Obviously none of that should matter because Ukraine's freedom is important in and of itself, but my detached impression is that aside from the US' aid to Ukraine getting hijacked into their own culture war, within Europe the Baltics and Poland are lifting their weight while all the countries further west are (inexplicably) umming and ahhing about providing some outdated tanks to help their own buffer zone survive another month.
I'm oscillating between wanting the election over, so we know, and never wanting it to arrive. I can't understand his support. I can't understand the weak singleminded thought processes people are using to throw democracy and global stability away over Israel/Palestine, but how they have forgotten Ukraine. I am reading of people actively voting Trump to punish Joe Biden for supporting Israel. if that's not cutting your nose off to spite your face I don't know what is.
American's largely seem incapable of comprehending the world. There is no world, just America to them. The position we are all in now because of American beer swilling, hotdog eating blokes in Arizona (other States are available) is intolerable.