As sharp and as relevant as ever Ian. Europe has to take the steps you mention to help defend Ukraine and effectively cut itself off from the US, at least while criminal and corrupt Trump regime holds power. Such an unequivocal stance would also benefit the the UK because it would force the nauseating pro-Trump Tories and Faragists to choose: Ukraine and the rule of law or Trump/Putin and the law of the jungle. This is shaping up to be our generation’s 1938 Munich crisis … and that one didn’t end well.
Christopher Clark in 'The Sleepwalkers' shows better than any historian how we sleepwalk into catastrophe (he writes about WW One). Like now. Starmer and Macron smiling and joking with Trump; media thinking things are normal; the entire world - its defences, alliances, and economy - imploding, and we're, well, sleepwalking.
And again, men, armchair generals, urge the arming of Europe with hardware. How they love talking specific, merit of this missile against that one. They are totally missing the point. Preparing for a meat grinder war. We have more people, but we care more about lives. We have an ageing population, less soldiers to throw in the meat grinder. Our young people are not as brainwashed as the Russian, and will not rush to answer the call. And what is more, the war (outside of with the countries of the old USSR) will not be a repeat of the last War. It is as we speak being fought and won by propaganda, influence, and helping to place friendly politicians in power all over the West. Putin got the USA onside without firing a shot. He's almost got us, with Brexit, and is keeping up the pressure with his puppet Reform doing well. He support the AfG, and other Right wing thugs in the rest of Europe. Spending more on hardware will lower even more the money we can spend on the welfare of our citizens, now that the Neoliberal religion has managed to brainwash us into thinking tax rises are heresy. And will drive more people into the arms of the extreme Right. Yes, we need to prepare ourselves. By educating our populations better. By looking after our citizens. By refusing to accept the neoliberal narrative, by spending much more on the destruction of Bots factories, who pollute our internet sites. Otherwise, we might suffer the fate of the magnificent Polish Cavalry, in the second world war. They prepared magnificently because they thought WW2 was going to be a re run of WW1. We know how that went.
Part of the issue is other European countries getting over their incomprehensible reluctance to buy French -- SAMP/T always gets left out of the air defense discussions, Germany could switch its F-35 order to Rafales... French stuff is often just as good (or better) than the US variant, but Europe has a weird prejudice against it
I thought Canada as a potential partner for the EU in these times would have had a mention. We ARE a member of the G7; we have a big industrial base with raw materials probably next to no other nation; and are a democratic supporter of Europe, and a pissed-off abuse-victim of the US.
Really helpful article, Ian. I thought the meeting between Trump and Starmer went better than expected. I bet Musk wasn’t mentioned. But Ukraine is the issue. If we had to go to war say. What would Trump do? The problem with Trump and this infatuation with dictators is it’s devoid of any grasp on reality. He’s talked about Mexico, Greenland, Canada as well. He’s sowing chaos at home and creating it in his foreign policy. I think this lunacy has got to bite him on the arse eventually. The ex-head of MI6 on Newsnight said that Trump thinks it’s a “deal” about a land exchange over Ukraine for “peace” He fundamentally misunderstands Putin’s intent. Putin will not allow Ukraine to exist as a sovereign country. What happens when Trump understands this?
The problem is that however much Europe arms itself to the teeth Russia is able deploy a steady stream of soldiers which can’t be matched without US support. They have the same strategic strength they’ve always had- attrition and weather are always to the Russian advantage. The enthusiasm for war is just, as usual, old men playing with young people’s lives, and young people in the UK have no great reason to volunteer to fight a losing war against Russia.
We do not “need”to rearm ourselves significantly, because an expanded war with Russia without US aid and support to NATO will only go one way. We need to give continued financial to support Ukraine and contain conflict in that area.
A cynic might say that war is good for the economy, and a cynic would also toady to the president and offer him an invitation to visit Scotland from the King.
I think it’s morally wrong to suggest that the UK should rearm and be ready for war -which is what you’re suggesting. Unfortunately you are so blinkered by your admiration for Starmer that you can’t see how we are stuck between a rock and a hard place here.
Forget US support, that was yesterday. Ukraine with very little has managed a great deal keeping Russia at bay. If only Biden had loosened the apron strings they might have been winning by now.
Unfortunately the posturing by EU and UK leadership is a delusion that we can prepare for a hot war with Russia. All that can be done is to continue to contain the current conflict. Biden had to walk a tightrope here- what would a beaten Putin look like?
Biden was a joke. He denied Ukraine the arms they needed when they needed them, worse he tide their hands behind their backs by not letting them take the fight into Russia from the start. The history books will not be kind to Biden. And I have not even mentioned the hell he has left Afghan women in.
That is, with respect, outdated. The USSR could do that but Russia? They are staring down a demographic cliff much worse than EU/UK and are taking so many casualties in part because they are running out of the equipment that would be used to reduce them.
They went begging North Korea for help and have resorted to using donkeys for front line transport. Hardly I would argue the mark of a major power.
General Winter whilst a classic only matters if anyone is talking about invading Russia and AFAIK no-one serious is - it won't help them invade Ukraine who are at least as accustomed to the conditions as they are.
Russia was able to do this before the USSR- if we are using terms like meat grinder that doesn’t depend on much in the way of arms. While Putin can still call on NK and other vassal states the demographic cliff is less important, and I think the west has entirely underestimated BRICS as an economic power.
Apologies longer response as several things raised here.
In WW1? They were an empire even back then and it backfired so badly they had a revolution.
Russian tactics are very artillery dependant and as Ian noted above they are having problems maintaining supply - that was, initially at least, why they had to deal with North Korea. It is also dependant on being able to maintain fuel supplies, logistics, etc and all of that requires technology which is becoming increasingly overstretched.
As an example think of how many oil refineries they've lost recently - no matter their willingness to accept casualties they can't just solve that with more bodies. Also bodies for this war are expensive (depending on region and when they joined up potentially multiple years of an average salary just for signing on the dotted line). This is not the "Great Patriotic War" for the future of the Motherland they're contractors and they expect to be paid - just like the people working in the factories and it's debatable how long they can continue to do that. You think the Tories were unpopular with 9% inflation and 5% interest rate try 9% inflation with 21% interest.
Also reading North Korea as a vassal state is over simplified - that help cost Russia, in technology, in prestige and in relations with China who do treat North Korea as a vassal state (kinda it's very complicated and I'm far from an expert).
BRICS isn't involved in the war if India and China were participating this would be a very different conversation so it's safe to consider the Russian economy in isolation.
TL;DR? Russia is a rump state of a fallen empire with 2 decades of corruption hollowing it out not the US/PRC peer it presents itself as.
I think the west are generally underestimating the tenacity and patriotism of Russians and the enormity of that country. NK itself is not a true vassal but as you say it’s complicated!
As for BRICS until recently I discounted the importance of this bloc, but last year’s summit demonstrated that there is a global market for Russian goods which can completely sidestep the G7.
As you have said, inconvenient but not insurmountable. Remember your lessons of the 1930s and you will, and Europe will, be victorious. And Ukraine will be saved…and MUST JOIN NATO.
Thought provoking article as always Ian. Presumably if Trump and Zelensky do a deal on the extraction of minerals, which involves American businesses investing and/or participating in extraction etc, America will have an interest in protecting that investment, and the supply of the minerals themselves. I suppose if Russia were to take over Ukraine, Trump would simply pivot and do a deal with them but that would put America in a weaker position?
Regardless of its motivations it invaded, with the intent to annex another country. The exact terminology for that behaviour I leave to those far better qualified but it doesn't change that Russia rolled tanks into Europe and has committed the vilest of crimes in any areas it has taken.
Also as a sidebar Putin is a criminal (corruption, murder of political dissidents, war crimes, et, etc, ad nauseum).
As sharp and as relevant as ever Ian. Europe has to take the steps you mention to help defend Ukraine and effectively cut itself off from the US, at least while criminal and corrupt Trump regime holds power. Such an unequivocal stance would also benefit the the UK because it would force the nauseating pro-Trump Tories and Faragists to choose: Ukraine and the rule of law or Trump/Putin and the law of the jungle. This is shaping up to be our generation’s 1938 Munich crisis … and that one didn’t end well.
Christopher Clark in 'The Sleepwalkers' shows better than any historian how we sleepwalk into catastrophe (he writes about WW One). Like now. Starmer and Macron smiling and joking with Trump; media thinking things are normal; the entire world - its defences, alliances, and economy - imploding, and we're, well, sleepwalking.
Starmer and Macron have to grin and bear it with Trump.
The US must be led back into the light.
And again, men, armchair generals, urge the arming of Europe with hardware. How they love talking specific, merit of this missile against that one. They are totally missing the point. Preparing for a meat grinder war. We have more people, but we care more about lives. We have an ageing population, less soldiers to throw in the meat grinder. Our young people are not as brainwashed as the Russian, and will not rush to answer the call. And what is more, the war (outside of with the countries of the old USSR) will not be a repeat of the last War. It is as we speak being fought and won by propaganda, influence, and helping to place friendly politicians in power all over the West. Putin got the USA onside without firing a shot. He's almost got us, with Brexit, and is keeping up the pressure with his puppet Reform doing well. He support the AfG, and other Right wing thugs in the rest of Europe. Spending more on hardware will lower even more the money we can spend on the welfare of our citizens, now that the Neoliberal religion has managed to brainwash us into thinking tax rises are heresy. And will drive more people into the arms of the extreme Right. Yes, we need to prepare ourselves. By educating our populations better. By looking after our citizens. By refusing to accept the neoliberal narrative, by spending much more on the destruction of Bots factories, who pollute our internet sites. Otherwise, we might suffer the fate of the magnificent Polish Cavalry, in the second world war. They prepared magnificently because they thought WW2 was going to be a re run of WW1. We know how that went.
Absolutely.
We have cashed in our soft power for isolation and hard man gesticulating.
EU membership is worth 20 divisions and a carrier battle group alone.
Part of the issue is other European countries getting over their incomprehensible reluctance to buy French -- SAMP/T always gets left out of the air defense discussions, Germany could switch its F-35 order to Rafales... French stuff is often just as good (or better) than the US variant, but Europe has a weird prejudice against it
Perhaps it was about keeping the US on board…
I thought Canada as a potential partner for the EU in these times would have had a mention. We ARE a member of the G7; we have a big industrial base with raw materials probably next to no other nation; and are a democratic supporter of Europe, and a pissed-off abuse-victim of the US.
Spot on Ian. Yesterday’s meeting in The White House was embarrassing. Trump did everything except pat Starmer on the head for being a good little boy!
Really helpful article, Ian. I thought the meeting between Trump and Starmer went better than expected. I bet Musk wasn’t mentioned. But Ukraine is the issue. If we had to go to war say. What would Trump do? The problem with Trump and this infatuation with dictators is it’s devoid of any grasp on reality. He’s talked about Mexico, Greenland, Canada as well. He’s sowing chaos at home and creating it in his foreign policy. I think this lunacy has got to bite him on the arse eventually. The ex-head of MI6 on Newsnight said that Trump thinks it’s a “deal” about a land exchange over Ukraine for “peace” He fundamentally misunderstands Putin’s intent. Putin will not allow Ukraine to exist as a sovereign country. What happens when Trump understands this?
The problem is that however much Europe arms itself to the teeth Russia is able deploy a steady stream of soldiers which can’t be matched without US support. They have the same strategic strength they’ve always had- attrition and weather are always to the Russian advantage. The enthusiasm for war is just, as usual, old men playing with young people’s lives, and young people in the UK have no great reason to volunteer to fight a losing war against Russia.
We do not “need”to rearm ourselves significantly, because an expanded war with Russia without US aid and support to NATO will only go one way. We need to give continued financial to support Ukraine and contain conflict in that area.
A cynic might say that war is good for the economy, and a cynic would also toady to the president and offer him an invitation to visit Scotland from the King.
I personally can’t see that going too well.
Almost all your sentences are factually wrong. Those that aren't are morally wrong.
I think it’s morally wrong to suggest that the UK should rearm and be ready for war -which is what you’re suggesting. Unfortunately you are so blinkered by your admiration for Starmer that you can’t see how we are stuck between a rock and a hard place here.
Forget US support, that was yesterday. Ukraine with very little has managed a great deal keeping Russia at bay. If only Biden had loosened the apron strings they might have been winning by now.
Unfortunately the posturing by EU and UK leadership is a delusion that we can prepare for a hot war with Russia. All that can be done is to continue to contain the current conflict. Biden had to walk a tightrope here- what would a beaten Putin look like?
Biden was a joke. He denied Ukraine the arms they needed when they needed them, worse he tide their hands behind their backs by not letting them take the fight into Russia from the start. The history books will not be kind to Biden. And I have not even mentioned the hell he has left Afghan women in.
That is, with respect, outdated. The USSR could do that but Russia? They are staring down a demographic cliff much worse than EU/UK and are taking so many casualties in part because they are running out of the equipment that would be used to reduce them.
They went begging North Korea for help and have resorted to using donkeys for front line transport. Hardly I would argue the mark of a major power.
General Winter whilst a classic only matters if anyone is talking about invading Russia and AFAIK no-one serious is - it won't help them invade Ukraine who are at least as accustomed to the conditions as they are.
Russia was able to do this before the USSR- if we are using terms like meat grinder that doesn’t depend on much in the way of arms. While Putin can still call on NK and other vassal states the demographic cliff is less important, and I think the west has entirely underestimated BRICS as an economic power.
Apologies longer response as several things raised here.
In WW1? They were an empire even back then and it backfired so badly they had a revolution.
Russian tactics are very artillery dependant and as Ian noted above they are having problems maintaining supply - that was, initially at least, why they had to deal with North Korea. It is also dependant on being able to maintain fuel supplies, logistics, etc and all of that requires technology which is becoming increasingly overstretched.
As an example think of how many oil refineries they've lost recently - no matter their willingness to accept casualties they can't just solve that with more bodies. Also bodies for this war are expensive (depending on region and when they joined up potentially multiple years of an average salary just for signing on the dotted line). This is not the "Great Patriotic War" for the future of the Motherland they're contractors and they expect to be paid - just like the people working in the factories and it's debatable how long they can continue to do that. You think the Tories were unpopular with 9% inflation and 5% interest rate try 9% inflation with 21% interest.
Also reading North Korea as a vassal state is over simplified - that help cost Russia, in technology, in prestige and in relations with China who do treat North Korea as a vassal state (kinda it's very complicated and I'm far from an expert).
BRICS isn't involved in the war if India and China were participating this would be a very different conversation so it's safe to consider the Russian economy in isolation.
TL;DR? Russia is a rump state of a fallen empire with 2 decades of corruption hollowing it out not the US/PRC peer it presents itself as.
I think the west are generally underestimating the tenacity and patriotism of Russians and the enormity of that country. NK itself is not a true vassal but as you say it’s complicated!
As for BRICS until recently I discounted the importance of this bloc, but last year’s summit demonstrated that there is a global market for Russian goods which can completely sidestep the G7.
As you have said, inconvenient but not insurmountable. Remember your lessons of the 1930s and you will, and Europe will, be victorious. And Ukraine will be saved…and MUST JOIN NATO.
Thought provoking article as always Ian. Presumably if Trump and Zelensky do a deal on the extraction of minerals, which involves American businesses investing and/or participating in extraction etc, America will have an interest in protecting that investment, and the supply of the minerals themselves. I suppose if Russia were to take over Ukraine, Trump would simply pivot and do a deal with them but that would put America in a weaker position?
I fear there's a very simple play-book happening right now:
1. The USA/Russia "peace deal" for Ukraine will be totally unacceptable.
2. Ukraine will reject it.
3. Trump will use this as the excuse to lift all sanctions on Russia.
This would rescue Russia's economy and allow them to ramp up the war in Ukraine.
Nato can revived.
Nothing is forever works both ways.
We need to weather a storm and …. Reverse the retreat of sift power.
Russia is not imperialist. War is always the last resort of criminals.
Regardless of its motivations it invaded, with the intent to annex another country. The exact terminology for that behaviour I leave to those far better qualified but it doesn't change that Russia rolled tanks into Europe and has committed the vilest of crimes in any areas it has taken.
Also as a sidebar Putin is a criminal (corruption, murder of political dissidents, war crimes, et, etc, ad nauseum).
The west is guilty of the same crimes hundreds of times over and far worse. We all know who started that war.
Russia is imperialist.
How does a strong man impress other macho morons?